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LPL Research Outlook

The LPL Research Midyear Outlook 2019: FUNDAMENTAL: How to Focus on What Really Matters in the Markets is here to provide economic and market guidance as well as investment recommendations to help us navigate the second half of 2019.


View the complete publication.

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The LPL Research Outlook 2019: FUNDAMENTAL: How to Focus on What Really Matters in the Markets is here to provide insightful commentary, economic and market guidance, and LPL Researches investment recommendations to help us navigate the year ahead.

View the complete publication.

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The LPL Research Midyear Outlook 2018: The Plot Thickens presents guidance on how the return of the business cycle may unfold during the remainder of 2018 and beyond, along with the investment insights to help investors navigate the twists and turns.

View the complete publication, featuring insightful commentary, as well as economic and market guidance for 2018 and beyond.

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The LPL Research Outlook 2018: Return of the Business Cycle highlights the opportunities and potential challenges that may lie ahead for market participants as we get back to the traditional drivers that we’d expect to push the economy and markets forward.

View the complete publication, featuring insightful commentary, as well as economic and market guidance for 2018.

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Thus far in 2017, an important shift has taken place in this economic cycle. The Federal Reserve has shown increasing trust that the economy has recovered and that market forces can keep it steady. Fiscal policy may now provide the backstop to the economy that monetary policy has provided throughout the expansion. The gauges say growth engines and market drivers may have changed: power down monetary policy, power up business fundamentals, and potentially take fiscal policy and economic growth off standby.

Here are the key themes LPL Research will be watching as we look ahead to the rest of 2017:

  • Monetary policy: Slow path to normalization. Maintaining economic growth without extraordinary central bank support will be key.
  • Business fundamentals: Now taking control. A focus on well-run businesses with the potential for earnings gains may favor active management.
  • Economic growth: Confidence not enough, yet. Business and consumer confidence has improved, but greater policy clarity may be needed to spur growth.
  • Fiscal policy: Pro-growth potential, but when? Fiscal policy support remains likely, but the timetable may be pushed back to 2018.

View the complete Midyear Outlook: A Shift In Market Control, featuring forecasts for stocks, bonds, and the economy, as your guide for the remainder of the year.

View LPL Research's Midyear Outlook 2017 video where Managing Director, Investor and Investment Solutions and Chief Investment Officer Burt White breaks down the key themes to watch, and provides recommendations for stock and bond markets during the second half of the year.

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In 2016, financial markets, the economy, and geopolitics experienced an unusual number of milestones that have come together to influence the investment landscape: a new president and administration, the stabilization of oil prices, and the end of an earnings recession. Being prepared for 2017 is about gauging these and other milestones, understanding their significance, and responding without overreacting. The LPL Research Outlook 2017: Gauging Market Milestones features market guidance, with forecasts for stocks, bonds, and the economy, that can help you to read the gauges and make adjustments in the year ahead, while staying strategic and maintaining a long‐term investment view. 

View the complete Outlook 2017: Gauging Market Milestones.

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A key to success, in life and investing, is juggling the familiarity and wisdom of old routines with the adjustments demanded by an ever-evolving world. As we look forward to 2016, the LPL Research team expects a return to routine for some key areas of the economy and market, but by a path that may catch some investors unprepared. Investors will need a solid plan to navigate the changing landscape as they adjust to changes like the start of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes, a maturing economic cycle, and the 2016 elections. We believe LPL Research’sOutlook 2016 will help investors refresh, renew, and embrace their routines in the face of unexpected developments and a changing environment. By embracing new routines, investors will be able to focus on what matters most to markets, block out short-term distractions that will quickly fade, and seek to make progress toward long-term financial goals.

View the complete Outlook 2016: Embrace the Routine

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View the complete Outlook 2015: In Transit

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At this year’s halfway point, we offer the LPL Financial Research Mid-Year Outlook 2014: Investor’s Almanac Field Notes containing key observations and updates to our outlook for 2014. Similar to a farming almanac, our Investor’s Almanac is a publication containing a guide to patterns, tendencies, and seasonal observations important to growing. The goal of farming is not merely to grow crops, but to sustain living things -- investing shares the same goal.

As we expected, markets in 2014 have been less influenced by politics and policymakers than in 2013 and more dependent upon growth. Growth is an essential characteristic of all living things, and in 2014, growth is vital to our outlook for the economy and markets.

View the complete Mid-Year Outlook 2014: Investor’s Almanac Field Notes